= NOW 18 WPM transition file follows =

Solar activity was a bit weak during recent days. Average daily
sunspot number was 159.1. During the previous week the average was
194.7.  Predicted solar flux for the near term is 165 on January 10
and 11, 160 on January 12, 155 on January 13 to 17, 200, 210 and 220
on January 18 to 20, then 230 on January 21 to 25, then 225, 220,
215, 210, 205 and 200 on January 26 to 31, 170 on February 1 and 2,
165 on February 3 and 4, 170 on February 5 and 6 and 175 on February
7.  Predicted planetary A index is 8 on January 10 and 11, then 10
on January 12 and 13, 5 on January 13 and 14, then 8 on January 15
and 16, 10 on January 17 to 20 and 5 on January 21 to 30, then 18,
15, 12, 10 and 8 on January 31 through February 4.  Weekly
Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earths Ionosphere,
January 9, 2025, from F. K. Janda, OK1HH, For most of the eleven
year solar cycle, two numbers are more or less sufficient to give us
a rough estimate of the state of the ionosphere and shortwave
propagation conditions, the solar activity index, optimally the
solar flux, and the geomagnetic activity index, usually the daily A
index or the three hour K index is sufficient.  We need more
information during the high solar activity period and much more at
the peak of the high cycle.  It may not yet be enough to understand
what is going on, let alone predict it. These include the solar wind
speed and particle density, free electrons and especially energetic
protons, and the strength and polarity of the longitudinal component
of the interplanetary magnetic field. Another excellent tool is
ionospheric probe measurements, especially ionograms. Unlike the pre
Internet era, we all have access to them.  Yet, or perhaps because
of this, we often experience surprises, whether a lull or
disturbance. The quiet post Christmas period and the big solar
flares on 30 December were followed by geomagnetic disturbances on 1
and 2 January, accompanied by auroras and SAR, observable even in
the mid latitudes. The following decrease in solar activity and
irregular rises in geomagnetic activity, 3 to 7 January, mostly
resulted in a deterioration of shortwave conditions.  The
improvements were mostly brief and occurred irregularly.  Moreover,
forecasts of further developments were unreliable.  A further
upsurge in solar activity is not expected until the second half of
January, after large sunspot groups begin to reappear in the eastern
part of solar disk. With few exceptions, major geomagnetic
disturbances should follow after the active regions on the Sun reach
the central meridian, in February.  Links to articles from the Royal
Observatory of Belgium, ARRL informational pages, and radio solar
indices can be found in teleprinter, packet, and Internet versions
of 2025 Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP002.  Sunspot numbers were
173, 190, 193, 178, 154, 113, and 113 with a mean of 159.1. 10.7 cm
flux was 212.4, 199.9, 209.3, 168.6, 171.9, 167.7,and 160.2 with a
mean of 184.3.  Planetary A index was 22, 9, 32, 20, 12, 15 and 8
with an average of 16.9. Middle latitude A Index was 14, 7, 21, 12,
13, 8, and 6, with a mean of 11.6.

= END OF 18 WPM transition file <