= NOW 18 WPM transition file follows =

Solar activity was at low levels on 18, 20, and 21 August with only
C class flares observed.  Activity increased to moderate levels on
19 August following an M1.1 flare at 19/0439 UTC from an area beyond
the Eastern limb.  Moderate levels were also observed on 22 August
as Region 4191 produced a long duration M1.7/Sf flare.  Associated
with this flare was a Type II radio sweep with an estimated shock
speed of 521 km/s.  The associated CME was deemed to be behind the
Sun Earth line.  Moderate levels continued into 23 and 24 August
with an M1.9 and an M1.3 flare, both originating from beyond the NE
limb.  While multiple CMEs were observed in coronagraph imagery over
the period, nearly all were at or beyond the Eastern limb and none
were considered to have an Earth directed component.  Geomagnetic
field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels on 18 and 24 August,
bookending a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream.
Unsettled to active conditions were observed on 20 to 23 August as
CH HSS activity elevated, with active to minor storm levels observed
on 19 August.  Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with
varying chances for M class flares, Minor to Moderate events,
through 20 September.  Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be
at mostly quiet levels on 29 August to 3 September and again on 11
to 14 September.  Unsettled levels are likely on 25 to 28 August, 7
to 10 September, and 17 to 20 September.  Active conditions are
likely on 4 to 9 September and 15 and 16 September, with possible
minor storming on 4 to 6 September and 15 September.  All increased
activity levels are associated with coronal hole high speed stream
influence.  Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the
Earths Ionosphere for August 28, 2025 by F. K. Janda, OK1HH, Given
the significant decline in solar activity this spring, I expected it
to increase by the end of summer at the earliest, and more likely by
the beginning of fall.  This expectation is now beginning to be
fulfilled.  And if the rise in solar activity continues, we can
guess whether solar activity will continue to grow until the
possible second maximum of the 25th solar cycle, lets say this fall.
A few days ago, sunspot groups began to appear in the eastern part
of the solar disk, which we knew about thanks to helioseismological
observations.  And not only thanks to them, coronal plasma ejections
extending beyond the eastern limb of the solar disk were also
observable, and in recent days, an increase in the concentration of
protons in the solar wind has also affected the Earth.  The
conditions for shortwave propagation have improved significantly due
to increased solar radiation and have fluctuated significantly and
rapidly, especially during the occurrence of sporadic E layers.
Active regions on the Sun will pass through the central meridian in
a few days.  Their activity will therefore begin to have a much
greater impact on the Earths magnetosphere and ionosphere.  More
than a few surprises are expected.  The latest report from Dr.
Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, can be found on YouTube.  Links to articles or
other websites mentioned in this bulletin can be found in
teleprinter, packet, and Internet versions of 2025 Propagation
Forecast Bulletin ARLP032.  The Predicted Planetary A Index for
August 30 to September 5 is 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 20, and 35, with a mean
of 11.4.  Predicted Planetary K Index is 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 5, and 6,
with a mean of 3.0.  10.7 centimeter flux is 158, 158, 155, 155,
145, 145, and 140, with a mean of 150.8.

= END OF 18 WPM transition file <