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Spaceweather.com reported, Astronomers are monitoring a very large
sunspot now turning toward Earth.  Sunspot AR4079 stretches more
than 140,000 km from end to end and has two dark cores each large
enough to swallow Earth.  Moreover, it is surrounded by a ring of
Ellerman Bombs.  Ellerman bombs are a sign of magnetic complexity in
a sunspot.  Opposite polarities bump together, reconnect, and, boom.
A full fledged flare may not be far behind.  Solar activity
increased to moderate levels this past week.  The largest flare was
on April 30 from an area where there was a major M class flare
producer on its previous rotation last week.  No Earth directed
Coronal Mass Ejections, CMEs, were observed. Solar activity is
expected to be low with a chance for M class flares, R1 to R2, or
minor to moderate, and a slight chance for X class flares, R3 or
strong, through May 2.  Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were
observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was on April 30.
Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earths
Ionosphere, by F. K. Janda, OK1HH.  In the past few weeks I have
allowed myself to take a break because I have been under the care of
excellent doctors and caring nurses in a top Prague hospital.
Fortunately, I had a receiver available and could and did use it
occasionally, but the computer was at home, QRB 53 km away. Now Im
back and continuing my usual activities observing the events between
the Sun and the Earth, analyzing the context and trying to predict
the future developments. Yes, I know that more accurate predictions
are not possible, while I can well justify why, but why not take
science a bit as a sport too.  In the last few days of April, AR4079
rose on the northeastern limb of the solar disk, while soon
increased in area to over 1000 millionths. Already during the early
months of this year, the Sun had subtly hinted that the centre of
gravity of activity might shift from its southern to its northern
hemisphere, but only now can we see this trend more clearly. So, its
possible that were in for another upward swing within the current 11
year cycle, with active regions mostly north of the equator. This
could hold the promise of improved ionospheric shortwave propagation
conditions this Autumn.  During this April, we experienced a really
large number of geomagnetically disturbed days and mostly low MUF
values. The calm and improvement occurred only in the last decade of
April, when we witnessed all six geomagnetically quiet days of the
whole April.  Going forward, although we do not expect a major
increase in solar activity for the time being, it will not be
important during the Northern Hemisphere ionospheric Summer. Solar
activity will more or less remain at the current level, the
geomagnetic field will be calmer compared to the past weeks, and the
situation in the ionosphere will be more favourable.  Solar wind
parameters remained slightly enhanced due to waning positive
polarity of the Coronal Hole High Speed Stream, or CH HSS,
influences.  A return to a mostly ambient like state is expected for
May 1, but by May 2, an enhancement in solar wind parameters is
likely with the arrival of a recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS.
The Predicted Planetary A Index is 10, 8, 18, 18, 15, 15, and 15,
with a mean of 14.1.  Predicted Planetary K Index is 3, 3, 5, 5, 4,
4, and 4, with a mean of 4.  Predicted 10.7 centimeter flux is 140,
140, 150, 160, 160, 165, and 165, with a mean of 154.3.

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